Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Happy New Year! Yesterday, average mortgage rates remained stuck to the all-time low like a honeymooning couple. They’ve remained close throughout the last couple of weeks.
And there’s little reason to think that will change now, especially as bond markets are having a half-day holiday. I think mortgage rates will likely hold steady or barely move today.
We’re taking tomorrow off because markets will be closed. But we’ll be back on Saturday with our weekend edition.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 12th, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Conventional 30 year fixed||2.75%||2.75%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 year fixed||2.438%||2.438%||Unchanged|
|Conventional 5 year ARM||3%||2.743%||Unchanged|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.308%||3.284%||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.375%||3.317%||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM FHA||2.5%||3.232%||+0.01%|
|30 year fixed VA||2.125%||2.295%||Unchanged|
|15 year fixed VA||2.125%||2.445%||Unchanged|
|5 year ARM VA||2.5%||2.413%||+0.01%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 12th, 2021)
COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. To see the latest on how coronavirus could impact your home loan, click here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
I’ve been saying for a while that’s I’d lock if I had a January closing date. And that advice hasn’t changed.
It’s based on a risk-reward analysis. Yes, it’s perfectly possible that rates will fall a little that month. But I doubt that any such falls will be sufficient to justify the risk of rises. It’s simply not worth the gamble in my eyes.
And we may well see rises. Whether they’re significant or sustained may largely depend on the outcome of the Senate runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5. If the Democratic candidates win both seats (and polls suggest they may), control of the US Senate will pass to their party.
And that will likely result in more generous pandemic relief measures. Markets will like that and bond yields and mortgage rates will likely rise — perhaps by an appreciable amount and for some time.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing in 7 days
- LOCK if closing in 15 days
- LOCK if closing in 30 days
- FLOAT if closing in 45 days
- FLOAT if closing in 60 days
But with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So be guided by your gut and your personal tolerance for risk.
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with about the same time yesterday morning, were:
- The yield on 10-year Treasurys was lower at 0.92% from 0.94%. (Good for mortgage rates) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields, though less so recently
- Major stock indexes were a little lower on opening. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when indexes are lower
- Oil prices nudged up to $48.05 from $47.85 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates* because energy prices play a large role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.)
- Gold prices were up at $1,901 from $1,887 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold rises, and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
- CNN Business Fear & Greed index — Inched lower to 49 from 50 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
*A change of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. The Fed is now a huge player and some days can overwhelm investor sentiment.
So use markets only as a rough guide. They have to be exceptionally strong (rates are likely to rise) or weak (they could fall) to rely on them. But, with that caveat, so far they’re looking likely to stay the same or move only a little.
Find and lock a low rate (Jan 12th, 2021)
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- The Fed’s ongoing interventions in the mortgage market (way over $1 trillion) should put continuing downward pressure on these rates. But it can’t work miracles all the time. So expect short-term rises as well as falls. And read “For once, the Fed DOES affect mortgage rates. Here’s why” if you want to understand this aspect of what’s happening
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the wider trend over time
- When rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases. But some types of refinances from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently appreciably higher following a regulatory change
So there’s a lot going on here. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what’s going to happen to mortgage rates in coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?
I’m expecting mortgage rates to hold steady today or barely rise.
Bond markets will be open for only a few hours today. And these rates have barely budged for weeks. So the chances of appreciable movement this morning seem slim.
Over the last several months, the overall trend for mortgage rates has clearly been downward. And a new, weekly all-time low has been set on 16 occasions so far this year, according to Freddie Mac.
The most recent such record occurred on Dec. 24. And this morning Freddie reported its weekly figure showed the average an imperceptible amount higher.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rates forecasts for the last quarter of 2020 (Q4/20) and the first three of 2021 (Q1/21, Q2/21 and Q3/21).
However, note that Fannie’s (released on Dec. 15) and the MBA’s (out Dec. 21) are updated monthly. But Freddie’s are now published quarterly. And its latest was released on Oct. 14. So that’s looking distinctly stale.
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages:
So predictions vary considerably. You pays yer money …
And another forecast
On Dec. 2, the National Association of Realtors threw its hat into the forecasting ring. It said:
The forecast anticipates mortgage rates will begin slowly going up toward the last half of 2021, reaching 3.4% by the end of the year.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been spooked by the pandemic. And they’re restricting their offerings to just the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the cash-out refinance, investment mortgage or jumbo loan you want. You just have to shop around more widely.
But, of course, you should be comparison shopping widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:
Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Verify your new rate (Jan 12th, 2021)
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.